Avison Young Canada 2025 mid-year outlook survey reveals momentum and opportunity
93% of survey respondents express confidence in stable or increased market activity, signaling cautious optimism although tariffs remain key consideration in decision-making
Toronto, ON – Global commercial real estate advisor, Avison Young, launches its 2025 Mid-Year Outlook, showing momentum and opportunity for the commercial real estate (“CRE”) market. In a survey of the firm’s experts across Canada, a combined 93% expressed confidence that market activity would remain stable (48%) or increase (45%) in the last half of 2025, although tariff negotiations remain top of mind – particularly for industrial and project management experts.
Tariffs are key considerations in decision-making:
While Canadian CRE is poised for a dynamic period of growth and adjustment, tariffs cast a level of uncertainty. In the second half of 2025, more than half (67%) of industrial respondents said their market stood to lose due to tariffs. This is in stark contrast to findings from U.S. Avison Young experts in the firm’s U.S. Mid-Year Outlook, where 27% of industrial respondents said their market stood to lose due to tariffs.
Due to recent tariff negotiations, is your industrial market stand to gain or lose demand in the second half of 2025?
Canada respondants
U.S. respondants
In project management, Canadian Avison Young experts believe developers will pause for a host of reasons in the second half of the year, including: costs and tariffs (34%), overall feasibility (24%), and risk (21%).
Developers will pause due to…
“Our industry is approaching today’s landscape with a mix of resilience and strategic recalibration, and it is clear to me from our survey results that Avison Young experts are feeling cautious optimism as they navigate clients through evolving economic conditions,” said Mark Fieder, Principal and President, Avison Young Canada. “While tariffs remain a key consideration in decision-making, we are seeing adaptation across sectors, from office transformations and retail resurgence to steady multifamily demand as investor activity ticks upward.”
Investor activity picking up:
Investor activity is especially picking up in markets offering long-term value, with private capital playing a growing role. Survey results show 88% of Avison Young experts anticipate investors will have somewhat higher (44%) or significantly higher (44%) appetite in the last half of the year. For example, in Vancouver, grocery-anchored retail is seeing a rebound among investors, while multifamily assets are seeing strongest investment activity in Edmonton, Calgary, and Montreal. In Toronto, mid-market investors are capitalizing on discounted assets and receivership sales. Suburban office and retail assets are showing healthier investment transaction volumes in Southwestern Ontario and Ottawa.
Where do you see investment interests for the remainder of the year?
About the survey:
More than 150 Avison Young experts across Canada were surveyed to establish a deeper understanding of real estate sentiment at this specific juncture. What the firm discovered is that across major urban centers, CRE is adapting to new realities.
“Avison Young experts across sectors and service lines offer data-driven insights that enhance our offering to strategically guide clients through some of their most critical business and real estate decisions,” said Marie-France Benoit, Principal and Director, Market Intelligence, Avison Young Canada. “This survey is a meaningful, collective measure of insights, allowing us to get a finger on the pulse to better support stakeholders.”
“Avison Young experts across sectors and service lines offer data-driven insights that enhance our offering to strategically guide clients through some of their most critical business and real estate decisions,” said Marie-France Benoit, Principal and Director, Market Intelligence, Avison Young Canada. “This survey is a meaningful, collective measure of insights, allowing us to get a finger on the pulse to better support stakeholders.”
Key highlights by major market – and overall outlook for market activity in the last half of 2025:
Vancouver: The city is charting its own course, supported by strong fundamentals; some larger office tenants are making early leasing decisions, with high-quality buildings leasing quickly – indicating long-term confidence for many office tenants; large industrial tenants remain active although smaller users are cautious due to economic uncertainty.
Edmonton: Edmonton is fueled by record-breaking population growth and surging housing and industrial demand as Alberta leads Canada in interprovincial migration; small-bay warehouses remain highly attractive assets, while multifamily is commanding robust rental demand and limited supply; downtown vibrancy is improving due to a growing educational presence.
Calgary: Like Edmonton, Calgary is setting records in large part due to Alberta’s spike in interprovincial migration; deal flow is picking up across asset classes, signaling optimism – particularly in multifamily and industrial; retail leasing activity is rising; Calgary leads Canada in office-to- residential conversations, thanks to proactive municipal incentives and developer engagement.
Toronto: Office is in tentative recovery as major employers refine RTO strategies; longer-term office leases are re-emerging, with flight to quality a dominant theme as tenants prioritize high-end amenities; in the suburbs, office leasing and investment activity are subject to shorter terms and more flexible structures; industrial tenants are cautious, especially in newer developments.
Southwestern Ontario: The region is quietly demonstrating resilience and adaptability – particularly in the retail and investment sectors; retail leasing activity is picking up and suburban office is seeing modest growth, driven by tenant demand for value and landlord flexibility; a rise in receivership sales is creating discounted buying opportunities for experienced investors.
Ottawa: Ottawa is seeing an uptick in suburban office and retail investment activity, highlighting confidence in stable fundamentals and long-term potential; private sector office leasing is steady although the slow RTO of federal government workers limits office absorption; industrial is balanced, while retail benefits from a healthy tenant mix and consumer demand.
Montreal: The second half of 2025 is showing signs of renewed activity, particularly in the office and industrial sectors; office leasing is gaining traction as companies adapt to hybrid work and the upcoming light rail expansion is expected to boost downtown accessibility; after a mid-year pause due to tariff uncertainty, industrial activity is resuming cautiously; retail remains resilient.
Edmonton: Edmonton is fueled by record-breaking population growth and surging housing and industrial demand as Alberta leads Canada in interprovincial migration; small-bay warehouses remain highly attractive assets, while multifamily is commanding robust rental demand and limited supply; downtown vibrancy is improving due to a growing educational presence.
Calgary: Like Edmonton, Calgary is setting records in large part due to Alberta’s spike in interprovincial migration; deal flow is picking up across asset classes, signaling optimism – particularly in multifamily and industrial; retail leasing activity is rising; Calgary leads Canada in office-to- residential conversations, thanks to proactive municipal incentives and developer engagement.
Toronto: Office is in tentative recovery as major employers refine RTO strategies; longer-term office leases are re-emerging, with flight to quality a dominant theme as tenants prioritize high-end amenities; in the suburbs, office leasing and investment activity are subject to shorter terms and more flexible structures; industrial tenants are cautious, especially in newer developments.
Southwestern Ontario: The region is quietly demonstrating resilience and adaptability – particularly in the retail and investment sectors; retail leasing activity is picking up and suburban office is seeing modest growth, driven by tenant demand for value and landlord flexibility; a rise in receivership sales is creating discounted buying opportunities for experienced investors.
Ottawa: Ottawa is seeing an uptick in suburban office and retail investment activity, highlighting confidence in stable fundamentals and long-term potential; private sector office leasing is steady although the slow RTO of federal government workers limits office absorption; industrial is balanced, while retail benefits from a healthy tenant mix and consumer demand.
Montreal: The second half of 2025 is showing signs of renewed activity, particularly in the office and industrial sectors; office leasing is gaining traction as companies adapt to hybrid work and the upcoming light rail expansion is expected to boost downtown accessibility; after a mid-year pause due to tariff uncertainty, industrial activity is resuming cautiously; retail remains resilient.
What is your OVERALL outlook for real estate market activity in the second half of 2025?
Vancouver
Edmonton
Calgary
Toronto
Southwestern Ontario
Ottawa
Montreal
About Avison Young
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For more information:
Andrea Zviedris [email protected], Media Relations – North America