Increase in GO Train ridership not linked to declining downtown office vacancy rate… yet

In 2019, the number of GO Transit rail passenger trips averaged just over 5 million per month. In 2024, the monthly average totalled 4.5 million. This translates to a recovery of approximately 90% in average monthly trips between these pre- and post-pandemic years.
Conversely, Downtown Toronto's office vacancy rate has risen during the same time frame from 2% to 16%, in spite of people gradually returning to work in the office and a workforce increase of over 500,000 in the GTA. Several factors now influence the average occupier’s footprint, including fixed flexible working schedules, rotating days and more efficient space-use. As a result, many office tenants have optimized their space usage to the extent that they have little or no space to spare.
As companies' return-to-office (RTO) initiatives continue to gain momentum, the demand for office space is likely to increase. With the new supply of office projects drying up (only 2 million square feet under construction), vacancy rates are expected to peak in 2025 before beginning a gradual decline. The combination of RTO trends and a growing workforce population is anticipated to exert downward pressure on vacancy rates.

April 15, 2025