- Calgary’s commercial real estate investment sector has moved in lockstep with debt market fluctuations since 2020. The deployment of mortgage capital for asset acquisitions has been heavily dictated by prevailing prime rates, which underwent a full structural cycle, spanning the historic lows of the pandemic to the restrictive heights triggered by global supply chain disruptions. The market reacted in kind, expanding credit availability in 2021 and early 2022 when the average prime rate sat at 2.59%, before sharply tightening financing parameters through late 2022 and 2023 as the average prime rate climbed to an average of 6.40%.
- This historical context is vital as the Bank of Canada’s outlook points toward prolonged rate stability. With headline CPI inflation projected to peak in Q2 2026 before moderating toward year-end, and labour market slack persisting, the central bank is widely expected to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25%. This prolonged rate plateau provides Calgary investors with a highly predictable underwriting environment and a favourable credit baseline for the remainder of the year.
- The flattening out of financed leverage as a percentage of total sales volume from 2024 to 2025 signals a welcome return to underwriting predictability for investors. The dramatic fluctuations in this aggregate leverage ratio during the previous tightening cycle, where debt captured a shrinking slice of overall transaction volume, forced a defensive 'wait-and-see' approach from both buyers and lenders. With the total debt contribution now establishing a stable baseline relative to overall sales volume, lenders are displaying a renewed willingness to price risk accurately, removing a major layer of execution uncertainty. Moving through 2026, the total sales trendline will increasingly reflect a disciplined market that relies on sustainable capital stacks and prioritizes asset functionality over speculative, highly leveraged growth.
Lending trends provide guidance to Calgary investment activities in 2026
June 16, 2026