Fraser Valley Residential Land Market Report, Vancouver BC

Key Take-Aways from the March Statistics

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board has published March home sales data, and it’s clear last month’s turnaround is here to stay. All key metrics are continuing their positive trajectory, signaling a healthy Spring market on the horizon. It’s clear that demand is, on average, outstripping supply.

Highlights from the March statistics include:

Another sizeable increase in Benchmark Prices for all home types, from 1.6% to 2.1% depending on home type, and the rate of growth is increasing.
A significant decrease in days on market, for all home types as competition grows.
A month-over-month increase in sales but only half the volume of the peak in March 2022.
A quantity of active listings consistent with the 10-year average for March, but only half as many new listings as the peak in March 2022.

How the Fraser Valley land market is reacting

The Fraser Valley development land market was steady in March, interrupted only mildly by Spring Break vacations in the second half. Demand is extremely high for development land as prevailing sentiment holds that the future of the market is bright, supported by consistent positive trends in the resale and new home markets.

In March, the lending environment began to show signs of life, with a handful of brokers and developers sharing experiences that there is once again capital available for land financing. This is a stark contrast to just a few months ago when borrowers were sharing fears of truly not being able to obtain financing. I don’t mean financing was difficult or simply required less desirable private loans, there were borrowers who could not obtain any financing options. Obviously, interest rates remain elevated, and we are hearing lender’s scrutiny is at an all-time high but this shift is bolstering confidence among developers and investors as they pursue their next acquisition. The result is increased competition for well-priced, well-located development sites.

We are, unfortunately, back to struggling to find available developable land in the Fraser Valley. The lack of availability is a combination of patient vendors reluctant to sell at what feels like a discount compared to prices from 2 years ago, or those with a land base above current market who are holding out, hoping for land values to climb.

A snapshot of key metrics

March 2024

Detached homes

The single family detached home market is consistently the first segment to move, either up or down, when the market is shifting. As a result, we look to this segment as an indicator for market directionality and velocity.

Home sales in the Fraser Valley

The following charts summarize the month’s total home sales throughout the Fraser Valley.

Days on Market

Days on Market is the average length of time listings of that home type stayed on market before selling firm. This metric is an indicator of competition among buyers and the month-over-month change can tell us whether the market is accelerating or decelerating.

New and active listings in the Fraser Valley

New listings is the cumulative quantity of listings posted for the month. Active listings is the quantity of active listings on the last day of the month.

Listings over time

Listing metrics tend to be seasonally cyclical making month-over-month reports misleading as indicators of market shifts. The below chart shows each month's active and new listings over the past decade. The current month is highlighted on each line to illustrate how today's data compares to the past 10 years of data for the same month.

HPI benchmark prices

HPI Index establishes "Benchmark Prices" for a typical home in each major housing category. Benchmark Prices, as a relative metric, tend to be a more accurate indicator of market direction and velocity as they are not subject to the composition of home types being sold, like average home prices.